Buffaloes @ Rockets

This game what suppose to feature an improved team from the Big 12 vs. a contender in the MAC each year. Instead both teams enter tonight's contest at 0-1 and don't want to fall too far the pack in their respective divisions. Colorado was supposed to be much improved this season, but that seems high unlikely after getting embarrassed on its home field by instate rival Colorado St. While Toledo is coming off losing by 3 touchdowns @ Purdue and looked horrible on defense the entire game.

Some things working in the favor of Toledo is this game is being played on their home field. The Rockets are 8-3 as a home underdog since 2001. Last week @ Purdue they experienced the majority of their success moving the ball in the air; they were 41-69 for 423 yards passing the ball. Perhaps the most impressive stat was their efficiency on 3^rd down, which was 10 of 19. No doubt they are going to need to score early and often as the defense looks destined to give up tons of points. Purdue scored 52 points on this defense; alone they ran the ball for 315 yards. So Toledo hopes they can't force the pace and get into a shoot-out with Colorado. Rockets senior QB Aaron Opelt will be the key to this game, throwing for 423 yards in the opener with 3 touchdowns is an impressive performance. His 67 pass attempts on Saturday were a school record at Toledo. Opelt has the ability to lead this team with his play on the field and the leadership he posses off it.  

Not much went right for Colorado in its opener. Closing @ -10.5 favorites the Buffaloes never had the lead once the entire game. What probably hurt the most was losing this game to instate rival Colorado St. While it appears Toledo will give up some yards on the ground, Colorado only managed to run for 29 all of last game. I'd looked for Colorado to try and take advantage of a weak defense and establish the run early and that will in turn open up the passing game late. Colorado better not be hung over from its previous game or Toledo will jump on them in a hurry. The Buffs are just 4-6 as a favorite under Hawkins, who is probably not feeling much love after his teams uninspired effort opening game.   

I can see this being a very high scoring game, but the Buffs may establish the run early, and eat up too much clock to reach the number (55), Toledo could offset this and score points in a hurry, so I see the total being a toss up. I do think there is value in Toledo in front of its home fans catching points. Toledo has a great record as a home dog and I look for them to continue that trend here. I'm taking a little risk here and passing on the points (+4) and taking the +155 money line. If I would have done the same with Clemson last night I would have gotten burned, but I like Toledo's chances here.

Braves @ Astros

Tonight's matchup figures to be an entertaining game. Also features 2 teams going in the opposite direction, with one team still in contention for a playoff spot and the other all but eliminated. The Braves have lost 5 straight and now trail the Rockies by 7.5 games in the Wild Card. The Astros have won 4 straight, including an impressive 4 game sweep of the Phillies but still sit 10.5 games back in the Wild Card race. The Astros have played pretty good ball at home for most the season, posting a 39-30 record. The Braves have faired pretty well playing on the road this season, 1 game over .500 at 35-34. So I don't see the Braves playing on the road as much as a disadvantage as it may be to other teams.

Javier Vazquez has arguably been the Braves most consistent starter this season, and will get the nod for Atlanta. Javier has posted an 11-9 record and sports a low 3.18 ERA and always seems to put his team in a position to win. The Marlins are the one team that has really had his number this year, take out those starts and he would have a 2.77 ERA. Offensive run support continues to plague this team and has really cost them some quality starts from the starters. Braves fixture Chipper Jones has been struggling more then most. In the last 20 games he is hitting .121, lowering his season average to .272. Maybe a good sign for the Braves is they have yet to lose 6 straight games all season. There is still some time left to make one final push and string together a handful of wins and see what happens. Tonight would be a good time to start getting things back headed in the right direction, as they don't won't to continue to fall further behind the pack.

The Astros will turn to the struggling Felipe Paulino in hopes of keeping the win streak going. Paulino is just 2-7 with a 6.62 ERA; however in his last start against the Cubs he was solid, where he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings. Felipe will need to turn in a similar performance tonight if he hopes to pick up the win against the now desperate Braves. Carrying the offensive load for the Astros lately has been all-star outfielder Hunter Pence. He had quite the series against the Phillies this past weekend, batting .462 for the series with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs. So if he can stay hot, he can continue to be productive and help carry this team to a respectable record. I look for Vazquez to come out strong early while Paulino will have problems with his command, giving the pitching edge to the Braves. From an offensive standpoint I give an edge to the Astros but have a feeling the Braves will break out tonight with a major offensive output and pick up the win. My play tonight is on the Atlanta Braves -140.

Last 4 Blog Plays 3-1

Padres @ Dodgers

Tonight's matchup will be featured on ESPN2 as the MLB Sunday Night Game of the Week. Although this game is between the best and worst teams in the NL West, it should still make for an interesting meeting. Both teams have been playing pretty good ball, despite the Padres poor record they have won 7 of the last 10. The Dodgers have won 6 of the last 10 and are trying to do all they can to extend the division lead on the chasing Giants and Rockies, back 5.5 & 4.5 games respectively.

This is the rubber match of the series, with the Padres taking Game 1 and the Dodgers grabbing Game 2. The Dodgers are also anxious to get back Hiroki Kuroda back on the mound after taking a line drive off his head in his last start to the Dbacks. Back on August 5^th Rusty Ryal sent one back up the middle that lead to a concussion and a visit to the disabled list. On Tuesday he pitched down in Class A ball, striking out 5 while giving up 5 hits, so that should help him calm his nerves. Before going to the DL Kuroda had been solid for the club, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 6 starts (Dodgers also won 5 of those 6 starts). Against the Padres he has experienced some success as well going 4-1 with a 4.83 ERA in 6 starts. His most recent starts against the Pads came back on July 3, where he gave up 3 runs in 5 1/3 innings. Kuroda is a ground ball pitcher, so it won't take long to tell if he has his good stuff or not, if his pitches have the late break action spinning in a downward motion the he is on. With some new faces in the clubhouse Torre has some options and flexibility with the lineup, almost the same way he did when he was in New York. These past few games he has been shaking up the lineup, I expect more then anything it's to get his regular starters well rested for the final stretch run.

Despite being in the basement for most the season out West, the Padres have had some positive things to build on for next year. I think Everth Cabrera is an everyday shortstop at the major league level. He plays exceptional defense and has a cannon for an arm. He has been hitting the ball well as of late and can steal bases when he gets on, I'd look for him to pick up some rookie of the year votes if he can finish the season strong. I also think the Pads have found their CF & RF for the next few years. Tony Gwynn Jr. very well might be the next Tony Gwynn (sorry couldn't help myself) he has cooled off of late, but is really a good contact hitter that can hit anywhere in the lineup. Will Venable is another solid 1^st year player, who plays some amazing defense and loves hitting the ball from foul poll to foul poll. Add those foundation pieces with Kyle Blanks and the mix of veterans I think you have a good core in place to build around. But it is going to take some time to play at more of a consistent basis. So my play is on the Dodgers-220.

My Birthday.....

Phillies @ Astros

Tonight's matchup should make for an entertaining game, that is if you like low scoring pitching duels. As 2 of the best lefties in the NL will faceoff to start the weekend series. Unfortunately this meeting may lack a little luster considering the positioning of both teams. The Phillies appear to be cruising to another NL East crown, with a comfortable 8.5 game lead on the Marlins and Braves. While the Astros will be sitting at home again this postseason, 15 games behind St Louis and 7 games under .500. The way each team stands should really not have a major impact on the game considering these are still professionals is this is what they get paid to do.

From the Astros perspective they will have their ace on the hill backing them tonight in Wandy Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been solid pretty much all season, but lack of run support has really hurt his chances of picking up several more wins. Since June 21^st Rodriguez has a 7-3 record and sporting a low 2.54 ERA. But the most shocking statistic of all is in those 3 losses he has received a total of 1 run of support (and it is hard to imagine things getting any better when you look at your apposing starter and see Cliff Lee). Coming off the Cubs series the Astros really struggled with the bats: Game 1 they scored 5 runs, Game 2 just 1 run and in Game 3 they were shutout. Wandy can not do much more then he has been doing so he really needs the offense to back him tonight if they hope to pick up the win. Rodriguez has only lost 2 starts at home the entire season; the Astros as a whole are 5 games over .500 at the friendly confines this season.

I don't even think the Phillies expected to get the kind of results that Cliff Lee has produced since acquiring him in the trade from Cleveland. With exception to one start, Lee has been nothing short of spectacular since coming over to the club and switching leagues. In his first 6 starts Lee is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA. After being unhittable in his first 5 starts, Lee was roughed up a bit in his last outing against the Atlanta Braves. He lasted 5 full innings but allowed 6 runs on 10 hits including 3 homeruns, so he did show some vulnerability there. Cliff has never faced the Astros but has seen Carlos Lee in the past; Carlos has experienced some success off the lefty going 5 for 16 with 2 homeruns. Last season the two clubs spilt a four game series at Minute Made Park, so there is no trend really favoring either team.

The low line of Philly-130 caught my eye but not in a good way. Seeing that line so low made me want to look into playing the Astros a little bit more. Since Lee proved to be human in his last start, that no longer made him auto play material imo, Rodriguez has been just as good but doesn't get near enough recognition for not playing with a contender. I like the Astros tonight to score some runs and give Wandy a great chance at picking up the win, however if Houston is trailing late there is always hope with Brad Lidge and his 6.89 ERA waiting in the wings. So my play is on the Astros +120.

Last 2 Blog Plays 2-0

South Carolina @ NC State

College football is finally here, while I might not be as excited as most; it is a welcomed sight to see not only MLB but now NCAAF on the board each night. Maybe it's the fact that I'm dreading relearning everything it takes to be successful year in and year out. Just when you feel you are getting comfortable with the MLB trends and stats it is slowly coming to an end and then it becomes time to switch gears to the pigskin. So now instead of everyday being a little stressful with bases, Saturday's alone will be make or break days.

Now tonight's matchup is a game I have mixed emotions about but think it is a game that still holds value. Being an ECU fan, NC State is one of our biggest rivals and to me personally the biggest rival. So anytime I can win money off them by watching them lose becomes the new greatest day of my life. But I also know to set aside all bias when it comes to capping a game. I have no problem placing a wager against my beloved Pirates, but I will be pretty sure they are going to lose before I do so. I've always felt the people that can't gamble against the teams they truly love show immaturity in the business. The same goes for betting on teams that you truly hate. Which brings me to tonight's decision.....

The majority of South Carolina's potential success rest on the shoulders of QB Stephen Garcia. Garcia will need to be more calm and relaxed in the pocket then he was last season. A lot of his mistakes came from when he was forced from the pocket causing him to panic and throw some wild interceptions. However season openers have been rather kind to the Gamecocks, winning their last 9. Last years season opener had this Wolfpack team going to Columbia where they would blown out 34-0. This year State will try to slow down SC as they have 4 seniors in the DL. So the SC offensive line will have to be sharp to keep their QB on his feet.

NC State QB Russell Wilson has been getting a lot of preseason recognition after coming off a stellar freshman campaign. Wilson currently has the longest active streak in the NCAA with 249 consecutive passes without throwing an interception. So if he can remain accurate and protect the football the Pack can control this game.

 I could get into a player by player breakdown, but that usually turns into information overload. When looking at everything from top to bottom the teams appear to be very evenly matched. I also am a big fan of the payback theory. State losing their QB last while getting embarrassed 34-0 in the opener has to account for something. I think with the experience this young team gained throughout last season they have grown drastically under the guidance of Coach O'Brien. When all is said and done I like for State to disrupt the SC QB's rhythm leading to some costly turnovers pushing State over the top. Spurrier will have a few tricks up his sleeve which should make for an entertaining game, but in the end I'm buying 2 points and backing the Pack @ -3.

Red Sox @ Rays

At this point in the season every game becomes critical, but tonight's game may be the most important of the season for the Rays. The Red Sox have turned it on since going through a miniature slump a couple weeks back, and they continue to create separation from the rest of the field. The Rays on the other hand have been struggling to put together a string of wins to gain any ground on the Red Sox and Rangers.  After dropping Game 1 of the series and finding themselves 6 games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card, tonight is a great opportunity to start to turn things around.  

I see a clear edge in the pitching matchup tonight favoring the Rays. Matt Garza will take the mound for the home team in hopes of continuing his dominance against the Sox. Although Garza is 0-1 with a 7.08 ERA in his last 4 starts, tonight he will be facing the team in which he has experienced great success. This year alone Garza is 2-0 with a 1.88ERA vs. the Red Sox. But perhaps the more impressive stat is Garza has only allowed 15 hits in 28 2/3 innings in 4 starts vs. this club.
The Red Sox will send the struggling Josh Beckett to the mound. While last month talks were of Josh Beckett being the leading candidate to pick up the Cy Young Award this year in the AL, those talks have quickly shifted to what is wrong with Beckett. In his last 3 starts he has a 0-1 record with an astronomical 9.82ERA. He is not just getting hit but getting hit hard, the number of homeruns he has given up over the past few weeks is off the charts compared to his early season numbers. This year he has given up 22 long balls, but over half of those have come in his last 4 starts alone. Although he has stated the reason for his recent performances is not a health related issue, one has to wonder if he is being 100% truthful.

These 2 pitchers have faced off at "The Trop" already once this year (April 30) with the Rays winning in a route. While Garza allowed just 1 hit in 7 2/3 innings, Beckett only lasted 4 2/3 innings, surrendering 7 runs on 10 hits.
The most intriguing matchup will feature the red hot Carlos Pena who hit his league-leading 39^th homer last night, against Beckett who has had Pena's number in the past. Carlos is just 3 for 22 with a homer and 13 strikeouts vs. Beckett.

This game being on national TV (ESPN) should feature both teams playing at a high level which should make for an entertaining matchup. If history can continue to repeat itself I see Garza coming out with a purpose in a must win for the Rays and getting the job done. If the Rays can get 5 runs off Beckett, which I think is very obtainable, that should be enough to get the job done. So my play is on the Rays 1^st 5 innings -115.

Mets @ Rockies

The Rockies appeared poised to not only make a run at the NL Wild Card, but to chase down the LA Dodgers in the NL West race. After taking Game 1 in a 3 game series at home against the Dodgers last week, the Rockies cut the Dodgers lead in the division down to just 3 games. Everything had been clicking for this team with solid pitching performances from the starters and bullpen and with timely hitting in late innings to secure victories. But after dropping the final 2 games of the series to the Dodgers then going to San Francisco and getting swept at the hands of the Giants, the Rockies are desperate to get back on track and pick up a win. Not only have the Dodgers extended their lead in the West back out to 5.5 games, but the slight lead the Rockies had in the Wild Card race has vanished as well. Entering today's games the Giants and Rockies sit tied atop the Wild Card standings with the Braves, Marlins and Cubs all in striking distance.

Things could be looking up for the Rockies, today's game marks the first of a 10 game home stand where they have posted a 36-26 record. While their opponent, the Mets are 15 games under .500 on the road recording a 25-40 record away from Citi Field. Although the Rockies have been struggling of late, this is something the Mets have been experiencing all season. The majors most injury riddled team has lost 9 of their last 12 games entering tonight's action.

The pitching matchup should heavily favor the Rockies in tonight's game. Toeing the rubber for the Purple & Black will be Jorge De La Rosa. Over the past couple months De La Rosa has been one of the most successful pitchers in the NL as the Rockies have won 12 of his last 15 starts. The lefty has faced the Mets once this season (7/30) @ Citi Field, going 6.1 innings, surrendering just 3 hits leading to 2 runs, on his way to picking up the win.

The Mets will send Mike Pelfrey to the mound in hopes of turning in a better performance then his last start in Florida. Although Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA in his last 5 starts, the one time he faced the Rockies this year (7/28) he threw 6.1 innings of shutout ball, allowing 7 hits, while walking 3 and striking out 5. However, that meeting was at home where he has been much better then his road starts reflect. In his last 4 road starts he has given up 22 runs in just 23 innings of work, and lost all 4 outings.  

From an offensive standpoint Mets 3^rd baseman David Wright is expected back after being hit in the head by a Matt Cain pitch back on August 15^th. Wright has been one of the few bright spots in this lineup, despite seeing a massive reduction in his homerun numbers; he still leads the team in batting average (.324) and RBIs (55). A lot has been made of his low homerun total (8) especially after coming off a personal best last year when he dropped 33 bombs. I attribute this power fluctuation to a couple of things, not having Reyes on base, being out for nearly the entire season has allowed pitchers to pitch around him a lot more, add that with not having  protection in the lineup from Beltran and Delgado and this is what you get.  It is also tough to ignore the fact they are now playing their home games in one of the biggest ballparks in all of baseball (Citi Field). But when it's all said and done Wright's homerun production should be the least of the Mets worries, even if he hit 40 homers this year I still don't think that would have them in the playoff picture.

The Rockies know where they stand with 31 games left in the season and defiantly can't afford any more 5 game losing streaks. Now is the time to get back to their winning ways and pounce on the wounded Mets. With the Braves and Marlins facing each other in a pivotal series and the Giants going to play the team with the best record in the NL (Phillies), this is a perfect opportunity to try and create some separation in the Wild Card race. That said I'm making my play on the Rockies today @ -220. Most may consider the runline here @ -110, but I have never been a big fan of that play. When a team is struggling, things don't always seem to go your way, so I'll settle with any win here (10 runs or 1 run).

Rays @ Tigers

The Rays desperately need this game the split the 4 game series, but more importantly they need this game to not fall any further behind the Red Sox & Rangers in the chase for the AL Wild Card.  From the Tigers perspective this would be a great opportunity to pad their lead in the AL Central and take the series 3-1 from the Rays. The Tigers currently hold a 4.5 game lead on the Twins and a 6 game lead on the slumping White Sox. The Twins and White Sox meet today for a pivotal series in hopes in staying in the chase for the Central crown.

The Tigers can attribute a lot of their success to the way the have defended their home field this season posting a 42-21 record, while the Rays have not experienced much success away from the friendly confines posting a 28-38 road record. Since May 23-June 5 the Tigers have posted a 27-10 home record.

The pitching matchup features 2 pitchers very capable of shutting down the opposition. Jarrod Washburn will get the ball for Tigers (9-7) 3.23 ERA, he has experienced great success when facing the Rays. In 17 career starts Washburn is 12-3 with a 2.59 ERA against the Rays, the most success he has had against any team in the majors. However since the trade from Seattle, Washburn has gone 1-1 w/ a 4.93 ERA in 6 starts with his new team. The Rays will counter with James Shields (8-10) 3.81 ERA. Shields will be trying to win three straight road starts for the first time in his career. He is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in two outings in Detroit, but hasn't faced the Tigers yet this season. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four overall matchups versus Detroit.

Neither offense has been in much of a rhythm throughout the series, the Tigers have used timely hitting keying their come from behind win on Sunday. While the Rays only managed to score 2, 3, 3 runs in the first 3 games, so a more balanced offensive attack is something the Rays Manager would love to see. The Tigers have been in the bottom of most offensive statistics throughout the season but seem to be piecing together things a lot better as we get late in the year. It would hard to find a hotter hitter in baseball right now then Miguel Cabrera posting a .335 average. He seems to be carrying the offense when they need him the most, however; it was Placido Polanco's 2 out 3-run homer in the bottom of the 8^th that won they game yesterday for the Tigers. The Rays did get back second baseman Akinori Iwamura over the weekend as he homered in the 4^th inning yesterday, so that could be a big boost for the offense. The Rays have been pressing Pena to try to hit more for average but that doesn't seem to be registering with him as he went 0-4 yesterday watching his average drop to meager .218, which is not a welcomed sight in the cleanup hole.

My play is on the Tigers.....GL All

Braves @ Phillies

Atlanta has had some success in Philly, as they've won 7 of its last 10 games there and they have an edge on the hill today. Jair Jurrjens will take the mound looking for another strong performance at Citizens Bank Park, where he has gone 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts. Jurrjens is 10-8 overall with a low 2.91 ERA. He's allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and no matter how you break it down this guy is impressive. Joe Blanton is pitching his heart out too and he's allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts. How he does it is a big mystery because his stuff is average at best. Blanton's strength lies in his ability to throw strikes, as he's only walked 38 batters in 124 frames. He is constantly ahead in the count but these Braves are an aggressive team that will jump on those first pitches and not allow him to get ahead 0-2 or 1-2. The Braves have seen Blanton four times already this year and while Blanton's numbers are pretty sweet overall, they're not good against these visitors. In fact, the Braves are hitting a combined .311 off him and his ERA in those four games is 6.38. Facing the Braves for the fifth time this year and having little success, it's very unlikely that he'll have success here either.

My play is on the Braves.....GL All

Astros @ Dbacks

Houston may have surprised a lot of people this year as they contended for the NL Central lead for a good part of the season. However, they have fallen back now and trail St Louis by 13 games in the division and have too many teams to climb over for the Wild Card. As for the Diamondbacks, the good news is they are in the same division as the Padres so that means they are not in last place just yet. Both teams will toss their aces today as Wandy Rodriquez starts for the Astros and Dan Haren for the Dbacks. Rodriquez is 12-8 on the season with a 2.82 ERA. Rodriguez got hit hard for 10 earned runs on August 14th against the Brewers. However, if you toss that game out, he hasn't allowed more than one earned run since June 26th. There is a slight chance here that the Astros will not start Rodriquez and save him for the Cubs. If so, I like the play on the D'backs even more. Still, Rodriquez and the Astros face Haren. Haren has a 2.73 ERA this season. Haren typically struggles in the 2nd half of the season, but is coming off a fine outing at San Francisco where he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. What I like about Haren is his control and KO to BB ratio. Not only does Haren have 173 K's on the season, but he has walked just 27 batters in 181 innings. Taking Haren you know you are in the game.

My play is on the Dbacks.....GL All